The method
Risks In Sync
A developing way to understand how disturbances move through connected systems—and why several things becoming critical together can turn an incident into a catastrophe.
Follow the disturbance
Complex failures often do not come from one extraordinary event.
They emerge when disturbances move through connected systems and several things become critical at the same time.
Risks In Sync looks at:
- Propagation pathsWhere can the disturbance travel?
- AccumulationWhere can pressure build or effects combine?
- BuffersWhat can absorb the disturbance?
- BreakersWhat can stop its movement?
- DependenciesWhat relies on what?
- SynchronisationWhat becomes critical at the same time?
- RecoveryHow does the system return to a safe state?
Four recurring questions
Gray Zones
Uncertainty
What do we not really know?
Ownership
Who owns the whole problem rather than one component?
Over-reliance
Which dependency has quietly become essential?
Constraints
Which limits reduce the system’s ability to adapt?
The editorial experiment
Testing Risks In Sync
Risks In Sync is not a finished framework. A method improves by being tested against real incidents.
Cascade Risk Review follows how a disturbance propagates, where it amplifies or stops, and whether the cascade is contained or becomes a catastrophe.
AI changes the economics of repetition.
It can help collect and compare evidence, structure incidents and apply the same analytical questions repeatedly. That makes it practical to look for useful patterns, weak assumptions, generic conclusions, missing concepts and places where the method forces an interpretation.
Repetition does not make a conclusion correct. Human judgment remains responsible for checking evidence, interpreting each case, refining the method and approving publication.
AI assists with
- searching and comparing sources;
- structuring evidence;
- repeatedly applying the method;
- surfacing patterns and preparing drafts.
The human remains responsible for
- selecting what deserves attention;
- separating fact from interpretation;
- refining the method;
- approving publication.
Author
Jose Luis Sanz
Jose Luis Sanz has spent more than two decades working with complex claims, incidents and risk.
Risks In Sync grew from practical experience analysing failures, dependencies and recovery. The current project is an independent experiment in testing and refining the method against real-world events.
Contact on LinkedIn